Not all NCAA tournament upsets are the same. Some truly shock college basketball fans throughout the country — think UMBC beating Virginia. But others seem to be less surprising. Sometimes Bracket Challenge Game players can see March Madness upsets coming once the bracket is out.

Looking at BCG data since 2014, we found the most popular NCAA tournament upsets that happened. We limited games to the first round only (round of 64) to make for easier comparisons. We also defined upsets as wins by No. 12 seeds or lower (No. 12 through No. 16).

No. 12 Murray State 83, No. 5 Marquette 64 (2019) — 45.60 percent of BCG players

At 27-4 yet a No. 12 seed, the Racers were a popular upset pick in 2019. More than 45 percent of bracket users picked the 12 seed. The reason? Call it the “Ja Morant Show.” Murray State’s dynamic star posted the ninth triple-double in NCAA tournament history with his 17 points, 16 assists and 11 rebounds. The Racers shot 53.6 percent from the floor and were never seriously in trouble in the second half.